Christmas Eve Geek Tap | probability puzzles | Decision Science News

COUNTERINTUITIVE PROBLEM, INTUITIVE REPRESENTATION

Blog posts about counterintuitive probability problems generate lots of opinions with a high probability.

Andrew Gelman and readers have been having a lot of fun with the following probability problem:

I have two children. One is a boy born on a Tuesday. What is the probability I have two boys? The first thing you think is “What has Tuesday got to do with it?” Well, it has everything to do with it.

DSN agrees with Andrew that one virtue of the “population-distribution” method is that it forces one to be explicit about various aspects of the problem, and in so doing, causes much confusion to disappear.

As a public service this week, Decision Science News presents the population-distribution representation of the problem (what it thinks of as the Gigerenzerian / Hoffragian / Peter Sedlmeier-ian representation of the problem) in a visual form.

To follow the logic, see Andrew’s post on how he solved the problem. Voila:

Red means “outside the reference class”. Yellow means “in the reference class but not boy-boy”. Green means “inside the reference class and boy-boy”.

Boy-boy in the reference class occurs with probability Green / (Green + Yellow) or 13 /27

NOTE
To see why DSN calls these Gigerenzerian / Hoffragian / Sedlmeierian representations, see:

Sedlmeier, P. (1997). BasicBayes: A tutor system for simple Bayesian inference.
Behavior Research Methods, Instruments & Computers, 29(3), 328-336.

Gigerenzer, G., & Hoffrage, U. (1995). How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instruction: Frequency formats. Psychological Review, 102,, 684–704.

(Sorry for not using R, excel is just darn fast for some things)

via decisionsciencenews.com

http://whatgetsmehot.posterous.com/christmas-eve-geek-tap-probability-puzzles-de COUNTERINTUITIVE PROBLEM, INTUITIVE REPRESENTATION Blog posts about counterintuitive probability problems generate lots of opinions with a high probability. Andrew Gelman and readers have been having a lot of fun with the following probability problem: I have two children. One is a boy born on ... Dogmeat

Snow (1963)

via youtube.com

With forecasters suggesting that the current winter might break some
of the temperature and snowfall records from Winter 1962/63, here's a
reminder of what snow meant for the railway back then:

There are scenes from all over BR including Scotland, Setlle/Carlisle
and the Western region. There are steam and diesel locomotives,
several shots of "Blue Pullmans" and a fine if brief glimpse of a
maroon D1000 "Western" class pulling a uniform rake of maroon coaches
at about 5:40 in.

http://whatgetsmehot.posterous.com/snow-1963 via youtube.com With forecasters suggesting that the current winter might break some of the temperature and snowfall records from Winter 1962/63, here's a reminder of what snow meant for the railway back then: There are scenes from all over BR including Scotland, Setlle/Carlisle and the Western ... Dogmeat

Best of Dogmeat Scholar Christmas Court

This summary is not available. Please click here to view the post.

the Santa's Sleigh/Polaroid "crotch shot"

This summary is not available. Please click here to view the post.

I, of course, thought this was a joke, but i'm in the land of 'no joking around'

via Bitch v. Whore: The Current Trend to Define the Requirements of an Actionable Hostile Environment Claim in Verbal Sexual Harassment Cases

http://whatgetsmehot.posterous.com/i-of-course-thought-this-was-a-joke-but-im-in via Bitch v. Whore: The Current Trend to Define the Requirements of an Actionable Hostile Environment Claim in Verbal Sexual Harassment Cases ... Dogmeat

*MORE Scribner v. Waffle House (because it's the best thing i've ever read)

*MORE

Scribner v. Waffle House (because it's the best thing i've ever read)

... asking her, "have you ever been eaten by a man with ice in his mouth?" and "do you want to sit on my face?"

... telling her, "if you ever fucked me, you would never be happy with another man" and "I'd like to eat the lining out of your pussy."

... calling her "little Ms. Big Tits" and "our Dolly Parton, the girl with the big ... smile."

... telling recruits being interviewed for jobs with Waffle House, "Your signing bonus will be a weekend in a hotel with Therese ... in a bikini."

... grabbing her blouse, pulling it out, and leering, "It was driving me crazy to see what those were."

... sticking a Polaroid camera between her legs, and under her dress, and taking a picture of her crotch.

... telling other Waffle House employees that "Therese got so hot and wet that you could throw her panties against the wall and they would stick."

... et cetera.^[3]

via scholar.google.com

http://whatgetsmehot.posterous.com/more-scribner-v-waffle-house-because-its-the *MORE Scribner v. Waffle House (because it's the best thing i've ever read) ... asking her, "have you ever been eaten by a man with ice in his mouth?" and "do you want to sit on my face?" ... telling her, "if you ever fucked me, you would never be happy with another man" and "I'd like to eat the ... Dogmeat

The Case of "Santa's Waffle House Polaroid Crotch Shot" Dist. Court, ND Texas 1998

The Case of "Santa's Waffle House Polaroid Crotch Shot" Dist. Court, ND Texas 1998

the Santa's Sleigh/Polaroid "crotch shot"

Tim Mercer also lied about the disgusting incident that took place on a Winnebago being used by management employees for the annual "Santa's Sleigh" program, where Christmas gifts were delivered to the children of the restaurant hourly employees in the Dallas-Fort Worth area.

Mercer was sitting next to (or across the aisle from) Therese Scribner. He suddenly 900*900 stuck his Polaroid camera between her legs, put it up under her dress, and snapped a picture of Scribner's crotch.^[91] Surprisingly, Tim Mercer admitted at trial that he did "something" with a Polaroid camera involving Therese; but, he then proceeded to lie repeatedly about the incident: he really "didn't intend" to take a crotch picture, and he really just "put the camera down at her leg," not under her dress. According to his next batch of lies, Mercer claimed that "Therese didn't seem unhappy or offended or upset"; that she just grabbed his camera and said, "You nut"; that "we were all taking pictures of each other"; that "it was not disrespect because it was done in a joking manner"; and that afterwards, "we had a blast, a fun time."

The Court then reminded Tim Mercer that he had "told one of the attorneys that the incident with the Polaroid camera was not a violation of the Waffle House Sexual Harassment Policy." Mercer was asked to explain this answer, and he replied:

"MERCER: It sounds real bad, I agree with that now, but it's just at the time it was just a fun — it was just in fun. It was nothing.... We were all crunched up on the couch of a Winnebago and there's not a lot of room in those. I just reached over and stuck it by her legs. I wouldn't even say the camera was between her legs. It would have taken the front part of her knees.

THE COURT: I understand what you said happened. And I'm asking you ... to explain that answer, why was it not a violation of the sexual harassment policy?

MERCER: Well, I mean, I feel like if I had heard that from somebody else, it does not sound good. But I was there and, you know, I did it. I mean, I feel like it was wrong now. It was just — it was just a joke....

THE COURT: Now, I want you to understand what I'm asking you. I want you to tell me why that wasn't a violation of the sexual harassment policy.... Again, do you understand the question I'm asking you?

MERCER: I mean, yes, I do. I don't know how to answer it though.

THE COURT: Well, I'll tell you what I'm writing down here [in my notes] is that you think that did not violate the company sexual harassment policy because it was a joke, it wasn't serious and it was just done in a fun way and therefore, it doesn't violate the policy. Is that your answer?.

The Case of "Santa's Waffle House Polaroid Crotch Shot" Dist. Court, ND Texas 1998 MERCER: I'm sorry, sir. I don't know how else to answer it. I mean, it doesn't sound good."

Larry Cannon, the Area Vice-President, was on this Santa's Sleigh ride and he witnessed this repulsive, demeaning conduct by Tim Mercer — and he also saw Therese Scribner's anger and humiliation. Other Waffle House managers and supervisors were on the Winnebago, too. However, no one reprimanded Mercer or apologized to Therese Scribner, and no one reported Mercer's misconduct to any superior

via Santa's Sleigh Polaroid "crotch shot" Scribner v. Waffle House, Inc., Dist. Court, ND Texas 1998

http://whatgetsmehot.posterous.com/the-case-of-santas-waffle-house-polaroid-crot The Case of "Santa's Waffle House Polaroid Crotch Shot" Dist. Court, ND Texas 1998 the Santa's Sleigh/Polaroid "crotch shot" Tim Mercer also lied about the disgusting incident that took place on a Winnebago being used by management employees for the annual "Santa's Sleigh" program, where Christmas ... Dogmeat